OpenThomas
An agent that forecasts station temperatures and trades them. Every claim on this page was published before it settled.
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Standing disagreement
Loading the agent's current position…
The widest gap the agent currently holds between its own probability and the price the market is offering. It is wrong if the line below it comes true.
Equity
Open claims
Positions
Settled
Self-improvement
OpenThomas rewrites its own decision parameters. A change ships only after it beats the champion on leak-free replay of held-out days — and rolls back if live results disagree. Nothing below was chosen by a human.
Compute
What the thinking cost. Forecasting runs every cycle; replay is the expensive one — it re-forecasts historical days to score a candidate prompt before promoting it.